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Yesterday I delivered the keynote address at the Shamrock Capital Advisors Annual Investor Meeting. I was privileged with the opportunity to present to a room full of high-ranking institutional investors and company executives, including Chairman Stanley Gold (former Board member of The Walt Disney Company) and Managing Director Dan Beaney. I spoke for approximately 40 minutes and my primary theme was the replacement of the private consumer bubble with a public bubble, whereby government policy now controls the overall direction of the economy. Click here to see a PDF file of the presentation.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta reported as of Jan. 13 that it had completed $1.14 trillion, or 91%, of its planned $1.25 trillion MBS purchases. Per a separate update from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York another $12 billion was purchased last week, bringing the total to $1.15 trillion, or 92% of the total commitment. As planned, the program is set to reach its goal by the end of Q1.
So what’s the big deal? Well, the wind-down of this plan will show us just how effective the Obama Administration and Fed was at creating stability in the housing market. Unless we see continued commitment towards MBS purchases after this date (doubtful though not impossible) my prediction is that mortgage rates will rise nearly half a point and, together with expiration of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, will lead to further deterioration in the housing market.
Here are the links to the Fed data: